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Elo Ratings Overview


1.15 Simply stated, the Elo Rating System is a numerical system in which differences in rating may be converted into scoring or winning probabilities.

Scale

  • the conversion rate between winning probabilities and rating differences
  • an equation satisfied by the ratings in the desired representation
  • an idealized model of performance fluctuations

    1.22 So that one may say how much or how many times one player exceeds another, an interval or ratio scale is desirable.

    Continuous rating formula

  • predict game results using the scale
  • observe discrepancies in actual results
  • adjust the ratings towards less discrepancy
  • choose rate of adjustment $K$

    1.67 Eventually differences in ratings will be generated which conform to the percentage expectancy curve on which the system is based.

    Stability

  • monitoring the rating pool
  • deflation control processes
  • the test of time

    3.51 His true challenge is maintenance of the integrity of the ratings in his pool, so that from one year to the next, or from one decade to the next, a given rating will represent essentially the same level of chess proficiency.

    Validation

    2.61 The valid test of a rating system, as of any theory, lies in its success in quantitative prediction, in forecasts of the scores of tournaments or matches.


    References


    Elo, Arpad E. (1978). The Rating of Chessplayers past & present. ISBN 0-7134-1860-5

    FIDE (2021). Rating Regulations